According to Bauer, the results of the Wisconsin gubernatorial race will likely turn on motivation, too. The primary variable that will affect it, however, will be slightly different. Governor Walker is seeking a third term, and in recent decades, only one other governor has been elected three times. As a result, he concluded that “third terms are hard.” Put another way, he thinks that it’s tough for a long-time governor, however popular, to get energetic supporters to the polls. So instead, those governors must rely on past accomplishments to prove why they’re worthy of four more years, which can often prove challenging when faced with a strong and enthusiastic opponent. Paired with the fact that opposition voters are more motivated, he explained, energizing voters will be a difficult task for Walker to fulfill. Relying on those explanations, Bauer estimated that the polls showing Democrat Tony Evers within one point of Walker are accurate.